Ngaba uqaphele ukuba igama elithi “optical fiber” ngequbuliso liye latshintsha kakhulu?
Ukususela ekupheleni kuka-2025 ukuya ekuqaleni kuka-2026, kwiinyanga ezimbalwa nje, imakethi yefayibha ye-optical yaphula iminyaka yokungaphumli, kunye nokunyuka komthamo kunye namaxabiso, kunye nobushushu bemakethi buqhubeka nokunyuka. Oku akukokuguquguquka kwexesha elifutshane, kodwa lutshintsho lolwakhiwo oluqhutywa lutshintsho lwetekhnoloji. Namhlanje, makhe sijonge ukuba kutheni ifayibha ye-optical ibe "shushu" ngequbuliso ngo-2026.
I. Amandla okuHlaziya i-AI: Imfuno yokuVuselela iNjini ePhambili
Mandulo,ifayibha ye-opticalImfuno yayivela ikakhulu kubaqhubi beefowuni—i-FTTH broadband kunye nezikhululo zesiseko ze-5G—ngokuyintloko bejongana nombuzo wokuba “ngaba unxibelelwano lukhona na.”
Kodwa ukususela ngo-2025, amandla okuqhuba aqala ukutshintsha. Uphuhliso olukhawulezileyo lwe-AI evelisayo kunye neemodeli ezinkulu zolwimi luzise inani elikhulu lamaziko edatha e-AI amakhulu kakhulu. Ezi nkqubo, ezakhiwe ngamashumi amawaka ee-GPU, zibeke iimfuno eziphezulu ekudlulisweni kwedatha—i-bandwidth enkulu kunye ne-latency ephantsi.
Oku kukhokelele kwiinguqu ezimbini:
(1) Ukukhula Okubalulekileyo Kwimfuno Yefayibha Yokukhanya
Ubungakanani bokudluliselwa kwedatha ngaphakathi kwamaziko edatha e-AI naphakathi kwamaqela eekhompyutha bunyuke kakhulu. Inani loqhagamshelo lwe-optical liphezulu kakhulu kunakwiziko ledatha lendabuko, nto leyo eqhuba ukukhula okukhawulezileyo kwimfuno yefayibha ye-optical.
(2) Iimfuno eziNyukileyo zokusebenza kweeNethiwekhi
Njengoko iimfuno zomthamo wothumelo kunye nomgama zisanda, imfuneko yefayibha ye-optical elahlekayo kancinci (efana ne-G.654.E) iyanda kancinci kancinci kwiinethiwekhi zomqolo kunye neemeko zothumelo olunamandla aphezulu. Okwangoku, ngaphakathi kwamaziko edatha, ifayibha ye-multimode okanye ye-single-mode eqhelekileyo isetyenziswa kakhulu kunye neemodyuli ze-optical ezikhawulezayo.
Ngamafutshane: amandla aqhubayo emva kwemfuno yefayibha ye-optical itshintsha kancinci kancinci ukusuka "kwiinethiwekhi zabathwali" ukuya "kwiinethiwekhi zekhompyutha."
II. Iingxaki zobonelelo: Iingxaki eziphambili kwiCandelo loShishino
Nangona imfuno ikhula ngokukhawuleza, icala lokubonelela ngeenkonzo liyasokola ukukhula ngesantya esifanayo.
Isiseko soshishino lwefayibha ye-optical sikwi-preform yefayibha ye-optical, emisela amandla kunye nokusebenza kwemveliso yefayibha. Eli candelo linemiqobo yobugcisa ephezulu, lifuna utyalo-mali olukhulu, kwaye linomjikelo omde wokwandiswa kwamandla (ngesiqhelo iinyanga ezili-18-24). Uninzi lwenzuzo yoshishino nayo iqokelelwe apha.
Kwiminyaka yakutshanje, ngenxa yokhuphiswano olukhulu lwamaxabiso, iinkampani bezilumkile malunga nokwandisa imveliso. Xa imfuno yanda ngo-2026, umthamo wangaphambi kokwenziwa wawusele usondele ekugcwaleni, nto leyo eyenza kube nzima ukunyuka ngokukhawuleza kwixesha elifutshane.
Kwangaxeshanye, amandla amancinci abekwe phambili kwiimveliso ezinexabiso eliphezulu, nto leyo ebangela ukuba ukuxinana kobonelelo kube nzima ngakumbi.
III. Ukungalingani kweMfuno yoNikezelo: Ishishini lingena kwiSijikelezo esiPhezulu
Kwelinye icala kukho ukukhula kweemfuno okubangelwa yi-AI; kwelinye icala kukho ubunzima bokubonelela ngeenkonzo. Ukungalingani kweenkonzo neemfuno kuvela kancinci kancinci.
Imibutho emininzi yemizi-mveliso iqikelela ukuba imakethi yehlabathi yefayibha ye-optical iya kuhlala ikwimeko eqinileyo ukuya kuthi ga ngo-2026 nango-2027.
Olu tshintsho luzisa iziphumo ezininzi:
(1) Ukubuyiselwa kwexabiso
Ngenxa yemfuno, amaxabiso efayibha ye-optical aya ephucuka kancinci kancinci, kwaye eli shishini liya lisuka kancinci kancinci kukhuphiswano oluhlala ixesha elide olunexabiso eliphantsi.
(2) Ukutshintsha kweNdlela yokuQhudelana
Eli shishini liyatshintsha ukusuka “ekuxhomekeke kumaxabiso” ukuya “ekuxhomekeke kumgangatho nakubuchwepheshe.” Iinkampani ezinezakhono ezipheleleyo zomxokelelwane weshishini—ukusuka kwi-preform ukuya kwi-fiber—zineengenelo zokuzinza nokulawula iindleko.
(3) Ingqwalasela eyonyukileyo kwiMarike
Njengoko imvakalelo kushishino iphucuka, uthotho lweshishini lonxibelelwano lwe-optical luphinda lube yinto ephambili kwimarike.
IV. Impembelelo kwiShishini leZixhobo zeNtambo kunye neeCable
Ukukhula kwemfuno yefayibha ye-optical kukwadlulisela phezulu kubaboneleli bezinto eziphathekayo.
Kwinkqubo yokwenziwa kweentambo ze-optical, imfuno iyanda ngaxeshanye kwizinto ezibalulekileyo ezifana ne-PBT (izinto zetyhubhu ezikhululekileyo),I-FRP(ilungu lamandla), iteyiphu yokuthintela amanzi, intambo yokuthintela amanzi, kunye ne-XLPE (izinto ezifakwa kwisingxobo). Njengoko amanqanaba eprojekthi esanda kwaye iinkcukacha zemveliso ziphucuka, iimfuno zokusebenza kwezinto kunye nokuhambelana nazo ziyanda.
Oku kuthetha ukuba ababoneleli bezixhobo zentambo kunye neentambo abaneepotifoliyo zemveliso ezipheleleyo kunye nezakhono zokubonelela ezizinzileyo baya kuba namathuba amaninzi kulo mjikelo.
Isiphelo
Ukufudumala kwemarike yefayibha ye-optical ngo-2026 akuyongozi, kodwa sisiphumo esingenakuphepheka sokuphuculwa okuqhubekayo kweziseko zophuhliso zedijithali.
Ngophuhliso lwamandla ekhompyutha e-AI, i-optical fiber itshintsha kancinci kancinci ukusuka kwitshaneli yokudlulisela ulwazi yendabuko ukuya kwiziseko eziphambili ezixhasa iinethiwekhi zekhompyutha. Ubungakanani kunye nesantya sokuhamba kwedatha zihlala zisanda, nto leyo ebeka iimfuno eziphezulu kwiinkqubo zonxibelelwano lwe-optical.
Phantsi kwempembelelo edibeneyo yokukhula kwemfuno kunye nemida yokubonelela, eli shishini kulindeleke ukuba lingene kwinqanaba elitsha lophuhliso. Kwishishini lonxibelelwano lwe-optical kunye nothungelwano lwalo lokubonelela ngezinto ezinxulumene nalo, lo mjikelo usenokuba sisiqalo nje.
Ixesha leposi: Epreli-24-2026